Illinois basketball is generating major buzz this pre-season, but not everyone agrees on just how good they'll be. While the AP Poll ranks them a respectable No. 17, a far more optimistic KenPom has them sitting pretty at No. 6! What's behind this discrepancy, and should Illinois fans be booking their Final Four tickets just yet? Let's dive in.
It's a classic case of humans versus machines. The AP Poll, reflecting the opinions of sports journalists, sees Illinois as a solid contender. But KenPom, the data-driven college basketball metric revered by many, loves the Fighting Illini. KenPom's No. 6 ranking is a testament to the team's potential, placing them just behind Purdue as the second-highest ranked Big Ten team. This might be surprising, considering the AP Poll places Illinois below Purdue, Michigan, and UCLA. What do these computer models see that the human voters don't?
To give you some context, Illinois hasn't been ranked this high pre-season since 2021, when they started at No. 11 with Kofi Cockburn leading the charge. That year culminated in Illinois securing their first Big Ten regular season title since 2005. Can this year's squad replicate that success? At Big Ten Media Days, predictions placed Illinois to finish 4th in the conference, which is still a strong showing in a competitive league.
Now, let's talk about expectations. Making the NCAA Tournament is practically a given. Most analysts expect Illinois to secure their sixth consecutive appearance (it would've been seven if not for the cancellation of the 2020 tournament due to COVID-19). But the path to March Madness is paved with variables.
Last year's Illinois team was one of the youngest in the nation, returning less than 3% of its previous year's scoring. This year, the script is flipped! Illinois boasts one of the oldest teams in the country, bringing back a significant 42% of their scoring – a crucial advantage in college basketball. And this is the part most people miss: Experience often trumps raw talent, especially in the high-pressure environment of the NCAA Tournament.
The returning core includes SG Kylan Boswell (12 PPG), C Tomislav Ivisic (13 PPG), and F Ben Humrichous (8 PPG). But the Illini didn't just rely on their returnees; they bolstered their roster with some intriguing transfers. This could be the key to unlocking that KenPom potential.
First up, we have C Zvonimir Ivisic from Arkansas, the 7-foot-2-inch twin brother of Tomislav! Last season, Zvonimir averaged 8 points per game and shot a respectable 37% from beyond the arc. He's also known for his passing ability and shot-blocking prowess. However, he only saw around 18 minutes of playing time per game at Arkansas, partly due to defensive struggles. But here's where it gets controversial... Zvonimir has reportedly gained 30 pounds this off-season, which he claims will make him stronger and prevent opposing centers from pushing him around. While Tomislav is currently projected to start at center, Coach Underwood envisions a scenario where the twins share the court frequently, giving Illinois a towering presence that few teams can match. Imagine two seven-footers patrolling the paint!
Then there's SF Andrej Stojakovic from Cal, standing at 6-foot-7-inches. Stojakovic put up impressive numbers at Cal, averaging 18 points per game. He took a high volume of shots on a struggling team, converting around 42% of them. The hope is that on a better team like Illinois, he'll get higher-quality looks and become even more efficient. Underwood has even drawn comparisons between Stojakovic and Terrence Shannon Jr., highlighting his ability to attack the basket and finish in transition. While his three-point percentage was just 31% last season, there's optimism for improvement. But here's the catch: Stojakovic is currently sidelined with a knee injury, and there's no clear timeline for his return. The regular season tips off on November 3rd, and his availability remains uncertain. If healthy, though, he has the potential to be the team's leading scorer.
Finally, we have PG Mihailo Petrovic from Europe, a 6-foot floor general. At 22 years old, Petrovic averaged over seven assists and 14 points in a professional Euro league. However, his eligibility is still up in the air. He needs NCAA approval before he can play in regular season games, and the season is fast approaching. It's a situation somewhat reminiscent of Tomislav Ivisic's last year, who wasn't cleared until just before the opener. Whether Petrovic will be cleared in time remains to be seen. He's been practicing with the team, and Underwood has noted that he needs to improve his defense and adjust to playing off the ball more, as he was a ball-dominant point guard in Europe. That doesn't mean he was a ball hog, but rather that he controlled possessions before initiating plays. On Illinois, he's expected to share point guard duties with Keaton Wagler, Andrej Stojakovic, and Kylan Boswell, and push the pace in transition. Underwood has expressed concern about the fact that the "big three" (Andrej, Boswell, and Petrovic) haven't yet practiced together, potentially hindering their chemistry development.
So, what does all this mean for Illinois basketball? The team has a blend of returning experience and exciting new talent, which is why KenPom is so high on them. The AP Poll, however, seems to be taking a more cautious approach, perhaps due to the uncertainty surrounding Stojakovic's injury and Petrovic's eligibility.
Ultimately, the success of this team hinges on several factors: the health of Stojakovic, the eligibility of Petrovic, the integration of the Ivisic twins, and the overall chemistry of the team. But here's where it gets interesting... Can a team with so many new faces truly gel in time to make a deep tournament run? Is KenPom overrating their potential? And this is the part most people miss... Are we underestimating the impact of the new weight Zvonimir put on?
What do you think? Will Illinois live up to the KenPom hype, or is the AP Poll closer to reality? Will the Ivisic twins become a dominant force, or will their lack of experience playing together be a liability? Sound off in the comments below!
